Friday, April 30, 2004


seeing the giants at the bottom of the productive outs list was not surprising, as i'd expect them to be near the bottom of most team batting categories other than IBB. looking at the walks leaders, the top four walking teams are all in the bottom 6 in POP. looking at batting average, though, all the 6 top POP teams lead the bottom 6 POP teams, allowing for a higher OBP as a group. this is misleading, as these groups will both regress towards the mean, making the teams that walk more the true threats to score more runs. also, of the bottom POP teams, the red sox and yankees, can expect significant improvement later on. boston will improve with the return of nomar and nixon, and the yankees will improve when their shortstops start hitting. in the top 6 of POP, who can reasonably expect texas to keep their .316 average? they are playing well above their heads as a whole. all in all, i'd say that POP is a POS stat.

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